The Ethereum price action has been a disappointment for many traders in recent months. The cryptocurrency is currently stuck in a bearish trend, with its price dropping by 23% over the past 30 days. This downward trend has not aligned with the optimistic expectations of ETH investors, especially after the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
Despite the concerns over the price, a closer look at Ethereum’s historical data reveals a pattern that is reminiscent of the cryptocurrency’s performance in 2016. Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed out that Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its movements in 2016, especially when looking at the monthly candlestick chart. This pattern has been consistent throughout the year, with Ethereum closing monthly candlesticks in a similar way to 2016 for eight consecutive months.
Potential Price Rally
In 2016, Ethereum experienced a massive rally of 19,000%, reaching $1,590 for the first time. If the current price action continues to follow the 2016 pattern, investors can expect a positive monthly close for Ethereum in September, followed by three bearish months from October to December. However, if the repetition of this price action persists beyond December 2024, Ethereum could see a significant rally above its current all-time high.
Currently trading at $2,445, Ethereum has seen a 10.85% decline over the past week and a 23% drop over the past month. The cryptocurrency is hovering around a crucial support level at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A strong bounce from this level could indicate the beginning of an upward trend, potentially leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September. A surge in Ethereum’s price above $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 is still a possibility.
While Ethereum’s recent price action may be disappointing to some investors, there are clear parallels between its current movements and those seen in 2016. The potential for a price rally above the all-time high is still on the table, especially if the cryptocurrency manages to bounce back from the critical support level it is currently testing. As with any investment, caution and careful analysis are key in navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency trading.